Turkey Earthquake: What We Learned, What Should We Do?

By Sedat LAÇİNER, PhD

It is not the first time that Turkey has faced an earthquake disaster... Earthquake, like rain, like snow; a fact of Turkish lands... one of the most common events we encounter in our daily lives...

Almost all of our lands are on fault lines and tens of thousands of earthquakes are recorded every year in our country... An earthquake of magnitude 4 and above happens almost every day...

According to earthquake records, there have been at least 23 earthquakes with a magnitude of 7 and above in our lands since the 1500s. In other words, there have been approximately 5 major earthquakes every 100 years, which causes a major earthquake on average every 20 years. Moreover, some of them are earthquakes that cause great loss of life.

For example, in the Great Erzincan Earthquake of 27 December 1939, 33,000 people lost their lives, 100,000 were injured… More than 116,000 houses were destroyed in this earthquake… The earthquake was 7.9 and it was definitely a big earthquake. However, an earthquake of the same intensity that could occur in a better-built city than Erzincan would perhaps cause much less damage than this...

In the 17 August 1999 Gölcük Earthquake, more than 18,000 lives were lost and the country's back was bent.... Since 1999, the earthquake has reminded itself many times...

We have experienced many major earthquakes in just 23 years... In the 1999 Düzce Earthquake, 2003 Bingöl, 2010 Elazığ Başyurt Earthquake, 2011 Van Earthquake, 2020 Elazığ and İzmir Earthquakes, more than 1500 people lost their lives, thousands of people were injured, and thousands of buildings became unusable. .

When we look at the destruction in the 2023 Kahramanmaraş Earthquake and what we went through after, one cannot help but lament why we can't learn from what we went through...

Unfortunately, the issue is huge to fall on a few contractors... Of course, the construction of buildings without complying with the earthquake conditions played a major role in the destruction in the Kahramanmaraş earthquake. It's not strange that construction companies and their owners are to blame. But are they all to blame? Can such a huge destruction be explained only by the mistakes of the owners of the construction companies?

The images that emerged after the earthquake indicate that all segments of the society are involved in the mistakes... From the one who built the house to the seller, from the officials who allowed the houses to be built in such a wrong way to higher authorities... From banks that offer loans to houses that were not built according to construction techniques, to engineers who signed building permits without seeing the constructions. many people and institutions are responsible for the great destruction caused by the earthquake.

None of us are innocent and as a society we have paid a heavy price many times over... and we are still paying the price...

Aas I said, earthquakehe reminded himself many times, it said, "take the necessary precautions before I come"...

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I don't want to watch earthquake experts on tv anymore, because I have already become an earthquake expert like almost every Turkish citizen... They keep telling the same things and it's not their fault, what needs to be done is what they say... But instead of applying what the experts tell in the field, it's like we just like to listen to them ... what earthquake experts tell must sound like fairy tales to people... they listen, but they don't feel obliged to apply them... Maybe we are deceiving ourselves in this way. However, you can't fool nature... and we couldn't...

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There are many things that need to be done in the medium and long term, but I will not go into detail today. Maybe it's not the time for these... There should be different things to talk about before the wreckage has been removed... But there are some things that need to be done right now, which I consider a duty to say...

Those who experienced the 1999 Gölcük Earthquake know that in those days, trucks filled with aid poured into the earthquake zone from all over Turkey... Baby diapers, toilet paper, bread, water, etc... These aids showed the richness of the Turkish people's heart. Many people, even though they were not rich, even when they were in need of help, sent whatever they had to the region, and even tried to come to Kocaeli, Sakarya with a veteran's car.

As I said, they had good intentions, they also provided great help, but the way followed was not effective and efficient... Immediately after the 1999 earthquake, the in-kind aids piled up, causing a great chaos in the earthquake area... Toilet paper was piled on the ground... Some of the aid was wasted and did not reach those in need... While heaps of blankets were forming in one place, people were looking for blankets on the other side...

NEED FOR MORE EFFECTIVE AID METHODS

We must learn lessons from our experiences in the 1999 Earthquake... In such disasters, direct sending of in-kind aids to the region by non-experts leads to confusion and inefficiency... A significant part of the in-kind aids prepared by hand groping by municipalities and individuals outside the earthquake zone are collected in places where they are not needed...

It is clear that planning is essential in the distribution of aid. There is a great need for logistics centers and warehouses where aid is collected in the region.

I am aware that due to the deepening social polarization lately, people have a mistrust of institutions and different political groups, rightly or unjustly, but it is possible to overcome this... A few well-intentioned brain storming or consultation may result in finding methods that will satisfy everyone...

You may need to give blankets, water, food, and clothes to the person who comes out of the wreckage in the first hours and days. At this stage, the contribution of in-kind aid will be great. Likewise, there is a great need for soup kitchens and shelters to be established in the region right after the disaster of the earthquake in the first few weeks. However, after a certain stage, aid should be made in cash, that is, the money in need of earthquake victims should be given in cash or in the form of spending checks, and the earthquake victims should provide their needs themselves from the mobile markets or distribution warehouses to be established in the earthquake area...

The guidance of AFAD and other state institutions is essential for the establishment of mobile markets and warehouses. In the same way, municipalities can take on this role...

If the earthquake victims can be given a daily, weekly or monthly expenditure opportunity, those people can meet their needs directly in this way, and thus the aid will not pile up in one region, it will not be wasted, and the unbalanced distribution will also disappear...

More work should be done with logistics experts, warehousing technicians, operators, etc. to address these issues... The details of the issue must be dealt with quickly and effective procedures must be found, otherwise our well-intentioned efforts may not yield the results we hoped for...

IMPENDING HOUSING PROBLEM?

Finally, it is seen that hundreds of thousands of houses have become unusable in the earthquake... There is a justified escape from the region to other regions... in fact, Turkey had a serious housing problem before the earthquake; house prices and rents had risen beyond even inflation... I'm afraid the big earthquake will deepen Turkey's housing crisis and raise rents astronomically. In Turkey's western provinces, the demand for buildings that are known to be relatively durable will increase to a record level, which will raise the already high prices to an unattainable level for the lower and middle classes.

While Turkey's building stock has decreased so much due to earthquake destruction, and considering that it will take a long time to build new buildings, some urgent measures must be taken, otherwise the housing problem will reach its peak... In some provinces, the problem has already begun to hurt. Less than a week after the earthquake, there are reports that rents have doubled in Mersin and Elazig provinces. People started flocking all over Turkey from the earthquake zone, but primarily to the surrounding provinces. It is inevitable that these migrations will increase rents and house prices all over Turkey. Evaluating developments in this direction as opportunism is not a solution either. It is in the nature of things, the price of scarce goods increases. It is not easy to prevent this with law or police measures.

In solving the problem, priority should be given to incentives that protect and improve the building stock rather than coercive measures. There are many measures that can be taken in this regard, but I think that the first thing to do is to suspend the sale of existing residences to foreigners, at least for a while.

It is necessary to suspend the regulation of citizenship in return for the sale of housing as soon as possible, because while the existing buildings are not enough for the old citizens, selling them abroad will deepen the crisis...

Apart from this, tax relief and other regulations can be introduced in housing construction... Likewise, incentives can be given to encourage vacant flats to rent...

The problem of economic accommodation in Turkey has been on the agenda for the last few years, but the Kahramanmaraş Earthquake has removed this problem from being a purely economic problem and increased its potential to become a security problem.

CONCLUSION

With all my good intentions, I shared what came to my mind as a human duty above...

Maybe my suggestions are incomplete... The mind is superior to the mind. I am sure that the experts in the field will make up for the deficiencies of my suggestions and make them more useful to our people... I hope to be able to contribute to our people who are in a difficult situation...

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Prof. Dr. Sedat LAÇİNER

February 12, 2023

Author Sedat Laciner is a professor of International Relations. He is the founding president of the International Strategic Research Organization (USAK). BA (Ankara University, Mülkiye), MA (Sheffield University), PhD (King's College London, University of London).

Email: sedatlaciner72@gmail.com