Russia's Depopulation Problem: Causes and Results
RUSSIA'S DEPOPULATION PROBLEM
Causes and Results. Is Russia Dying?
December 2022
By Sedat LAÇİNER (PhD)
The slowdown in population growth is the general problem of the modern and developed world. The comforts of modern life and certain features of the 'new society' are driving fertility rates down rapidly. In the 2000s, populations in many OECD countries either stagnated or regressed.
Decline of population growth can cause many vital problems in the economy, politics and social relations. Chief among these problems is the difficulties in financing the aging population. The decrease in the proportion of the young population in the total population also negatively affects business life, negatively affecting productivity and creativity in the labor market. Just as the aging of a person causes negativities, the aging of a society brings similar problems: Aging nations begin to lose their vital functions, and they lose their flexibility and productivity in many areas from economy to art. Although Western Europe and the United States keep complaining about immigration, they are managing the population problem for now largely thanks to the new immigrants. For instance, the annual birth rate in Germany is at its lowest level since 1945. The situation is no different in the US. However, the declining population of Western Europe has been balanced by intense African and Asian immigration , while the US population is balanced by immigration from Central and South America. The Western states attract young and well-trained manpower from underdeveloped countries, both with the employment opportunities created by their developed economies and the political freedoms provided by liberal democracy.
The aging population and the decrease in the number of children per woman are also formidable problems of the Russian Federation. In 1991, the population of Russia exceeded 148 million. In 2000, Russia fell to 147.5 million. In 2010, it remained almost the same, reaching only 147.8 million. In 2021, the population of the Russian Federation decreased to 144.7 million. Russia has been one of the countries most negatively affected by the COVID epidemic, causing deaths and alienating people from having new children. Since 2020, the population of Russia is decreasing every year and the 2023 forecast is around 144.4 million.
In summary, the population of Russia, which was 148 million in 1991, has decreased by approximately 3.6 million people in the last 32 years to 144.4 million. However, in the same period, the population of the US increased by approximately 90 million people with the help of foreign immigration. Likewise, Turkey's population, which was 55 million in 1991, has increased by approximately 31.6 million people in the past 32 years and reached 86.6 million.
For a state like Russia, which has the largest country in the world, the continuous decrease in population causes many critical problems and the Kremlin has been aware of the issue for a long time. Some of the Russian politicians even claimed that Russia is slowly dying due to its aging and declining population. Similarly journalist Oliver Bullough says “Russia is dying from within”, specifically referring to population decline.
According to some demographers, if the population trends in Russia continue in this way, the population of Russia will decrease to 120 million with the most optimistic forecast and 80 million with the most pessimistic forecast in the next 30 years. In none of the "2050 population projections", the Russian Federation is among the top 10 most populated countries in the world.
Russia is becoming an ordinary country with each passing day, at least in terms of population. Moreover, the Russian Federation is not only made up of ethnic Russians. There are many peoples of various religions and races in the Federation, and the Russians whose population is decreasing the fastest. In other words, both the population of Russia and the proportion of the Russians in this population is decreasing. The proportion of ethnic Russians within the Russian Federation is estimated to be around 71 percent, and according to some experts, this proportion is declining rapidly, and within a few decades the proportion of Russians in the total population is likely to fall below 50 percent. According to the statistics for 2021, the average fertility rate among ethnic Russians is around 1.4 percent, while this figure is 1.9 for Chechens, Ingush, Yakuts and Kazakhs, 1.8 for Azeris and Chuvashs, and 2.1 for Avars and Tajiks. The fertility rate among Russians is the lowest of the 42 groups.
REASONS FOR DECLINE
The fertility of Russian women was quite high in the 19th century. However, after 1970, a similar decline in other European countries began in the fertility of Russian women. The issue attracted the attention of many experts, and various articles and books have been written on the subject. According to experts, the root of Russia's population crisis is Russian reluctance to have children.
The Russian population problem has much in common with the population problems in Europe and America, but the Russian population collapse has other dimensions as well.
Political problems put considerable pressure on population growth in Russia. Also, Russian men and women, unlike Westerners, look to the future with less confidence, and this insecurity drives them further away from having children. The first reason for distrust of the future is undoubtedly political. During the Soviet Union, Russian men and women faced insurmountable difficulties in economic and political terms.
The dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, contrary to hopes, brought chaos to the Russians, not stability. Those who hoped for a richer and more democratic Russia in the 2000s were disappointed under Vladimir Putin's autocratic rule. Despite the large natural resources and petro-dollars, Russia could not reasonably distribute its national wealth among its people, and while a group of oligarchs became the richest in the world, the Russian people could not even trust the future enough to have children.
There are social as well as political reasons for the rapid decline in fertility of Russian women. The prevalence of alcoholism among Russian men became another reason for Russian women's distrust of Russian men for marriage and children.
Undoubtedly, men are among those most blamed in Russia's demographic crisis. Alcohol addiction is very high among Russian men. Alcoholism interferes with regular work and regular family life, and negatively affects women. In addition, many studies have shown that alcohol problems increase crimes and other public order problems among Russian men, which has a very negative effect on fertility rates. The average life expectancy among Russian men is incomparably lower than in the West, below 62 years old. This number dropped to 59 at one time. In short, alcohol doesn't just kill Russian men, it also prevents Russia from proliferating.
Another factor in Russia's population crisis is Russian immigration abroad. Immigrants are generally young men and women. As such, Russia loses people who can have children and actively participate in working life to other countries. In fact, Russia is a multi-ethnic country, with more than 190 ethnic groups living in the country. As such, Russia also receives many immigrants from abroad, especially from the former Soviet Republics. However, the population fleeing from Russia and those arriving do not balance each other. In addition, the population immigrating from Russia is more educated and at the age of active participation in the workforce, unlike the examples in Western Europe.
Before and after the Cold War, many Russian youth, who had the opportunity, were looking for their future in the West. But Russia's military operations in the Caucasus and Eastern Europe further accelerated Russian youth migration abroad and worsened Russia's population problem.
The war in Chechnya, Georgia, and now Ukraine led to more emigration of Russian youth. It is estimated that more than 700 thousand Russians immigrated to the neighboring countries in the first year after the Ukraine War alone. Fleeing from Russia, or rather from the war, the Russians settled in countries such as Turkey, Israel, Georgia and Southern Cyprus. A striking feature of the immigrants was the high number of Russian women in the childbearing age range.
The first effect of the war on Russia's population was the psychological shock it caused, forcing people to migrate to other countries. People who don't want to be drafted or stay in the middle of conflicts migrate. The second and perhaps more important effect is that the war increases the Russian people's distrust of the future and their country. The pessimism caused by the war further lowers fertility rates too. If the Ukraine War is prolonged and new ones are added to this war, the men who will stay away from their homes will not have a more serious contribution to the population growth of Russia for a long time, and they may never return from the places they went.
Inside, the devastating effects of the War make life harder every day. Before the Ukrainian War, the ordinary Russian citizen was already dissatisfied. As the part of the budget that goes to war grows, economic difficulties continue to overwhelm the citizens. The deteriorating living conditions of the people due to the war economy will not positively affect the fertility rate as can be expected.
PUTIN'S 'BOOMING POPULATION' CAMPAIGN
According to a calculation made in 2019, a baby was born every 22 seconds and a person dies every 13 seconds in Russia. That means 1 net loss every 30 seconds. The COVID pandemic and wartime conditions have further distorted these figures, and according to statistics, the deterioration continues. The Russian population is aging and shrinking. If the predictions of pessimistic demographers turn out to be correct, Russia, the country with the largest territory in the world, may have a population even less than some of its neighbors such as Turkey and Iran in 2050.
Vladimir Putin was one of the politicians who had problems with Russia's population decline. In 2006, Putin described depopulation as "the country's most urgent problem". In 2007, the Government launched a program to stop depopulation, and it was announced that $11,000 would be paid to mothers with more than one child. In the context of the same program, extra free-days and other gifts were organized for mothers.
In 2011, Putin launched another $53 billion population growth campaign. Population statistics immediately following the policy change in 2007 show that Russia's population decline has slowed, but this has been associated with migration movements rather than natural births.
At the beginning of 2020, Putin announced that they would continue to support population growth, spending at least $6.5 billion in just one year. According to Putin's program, it was aimed to increase the fertility rate of Russian women from around 1.5 to 1.7 within four years. This target, which is quite ambitious, did not hold, and even fell below 1.5.
THE GENUINE SOURCE OF THE PROBLEM
According to many experts, although Putin's efforts are important, they will not be enough to stop the population decline, because there are natural and strong dynamics in the roots of the decrease in Russia's population. Putin has been trying to increase the number of children born, but those born in Russia do not live long, the average life expectancy is incredibly low, especially among the male population, even under 62 years old. People do not live long, those who do do not live well, they cannot look to the future with confidence, the Russian economy does not even satisfy the current population, and of course the government is responsible for all this. Therefore, if the Government wants to increase the population of Russia, it must first change itself, which is the most difficult. Putin must establish a more democratic and liberal political-social structure, Russia's natural wealth must be distributed more equitably, and the Kremlin must engage in less wars.
IS RUSSIA DYING?
It is obvious that Russia has serious population trouble. However, from this point of view, it would be an exaggeration to say that Russia is dead or the Russians are erased from history, etc.. Even with its current population, Russia has more population than Germany and England combined. No matter how long the meltdown in Russia's population lasts, Russia will be one of the countries with the largest population in Europe and the world.
On the other hand, population is one of the elements of power and the declining population will remove Russia from being one of the 'population giants' like China, India and the US.
As a result, Russia is not dying, at least not because of depopulation. However, if moral erosion, adventurous foreign policy, authoritarian domestic politics, the pessimism prevailing in the country and the migration of young Russians abroad continue, then it is possible to talk about a real risk of death.
Academic Papers, December 2022
Author: Sedat Laçiner is International Relations profesor and columnist. BA (Ankara University), MA (University of Sheffield), PhD (King’s College London)
E-mail: sedatlaciner72@gmail.com
Russia’ Population (2020-2023)
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